Constrained for funds and facing rapidly improving potential adversaries, the US Air Force (USAF) is grappling with how to ensure control of the air in the 2030s.
One proposal — leaning heavily on standoff forces to provide “affordable” mass without traditional air superiority — has a problem: even with long-range kill chains, exquisite smart weapons, and low-cost swarms, no one has specifically described how such novel ideas would lead to victory. As the USAF considers difficult standoff versus stand-in decisions and what future control of the air might entail, the debate must return to a critical focus: how to produce effective mass.
Arguments over whether air superiority is necessary overlook a critical point: In a hypothetical defense against an invading adversary, the USAF might win with standoff-centric theories of victory, if they solve the effective mass calculus. However, with air superiority, the odds of victory increase drastically.